The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe

As a fan of ‘Fortune’s Formula’ I was excited to his latest book - particularly knowing that it would discuss the Fermi paradox and Gott’s Copernicus model. Poundstone does a great job summarizing the various strong opinions and rationales among the physics community. Poundstone’s detailed writing style and exposition of the scientific context makes Gott’s proposed solution to the Fermi paradox more credible (to me) than the typical ones I’ve read. THe sections on fine tuning and observers was excellent as well. Overall, very good book and worth the wait. I will be re-reading sections of this many times to come in the future.

This book has an interesting premise: based upon Bayes theorem, we can estimate the number of years that mankind will exist. He comes up with the number of 760 but really doesn't show how he got there (maybe the math is too complex, or the logic is too complex, but if it is, he should have put it in an appendix). He goes through some examples of application of Bayes Theorem. I especially like the one with the two tubs. But, he doesn't follow-up. Instead, we get lost in the usual physics mumbo jumbo about multi-universes, and how artificial intelligence is going make mankind extinct, etc. There probably is a rationale, but he doesn't really show it. Such a disappointment.

This book looks doomsday dead in the eyes and proposes to send math to figure it out. I will confess that I had never heard of the Copernican Delta-T method when I first read the book, but now I think about these kinds of Fermi problems everywhere. This book, an excellent companion to Superforecasting presents an epic and interesting mathematical tale. It's everything one should expect from William Poundstone.

Package arrived as expected in excellent condition.

An interesting topic, one many will disagree with, but which is intriguing as all get out.

“The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future is Transforming Everything We Know about Life and the Universe,” by William Poundstone, Little Brown, NY, 2019. In the 304-page hardback, William Poundstone presents yet another discussion of logic and probability to estimate almost anything. In particular he uses the method to predict the end of civilization.He begins with the idea of uncertainty. If you wish to estimate how long a relationship will last at the 50% probability level, you do not know where you are now, but 50% runs from 25 to 75%. If you are at 25%, the end is predicted to lie at three times the present time; if at 75% the prediction is one third of the present time. At the 95% probability level, the uncertain time runs from 2.5% to 97.5. Hence, the relationship will last from 39 times the time to now to 1/39 of that time.A series of calculations test the method. In World War II, the number of tanks produced by the Nazis was estimated from serial numbers at 270 tanks per month. The actual number was 276 tanks per month.Estimates of the survival time of plays on Broadway found 36 of 44 plays had closed with 95% confidence limits. The method also works for estimating the life of corporations in the S&P 500 or Fortune 500 companies. The oldest companies are estimated to survive longest.Homo sapiens are thought to have existed for 200,000 years. On this basis at the 95% confidence interval, the species is calculated to survive from 1/39th to 39 times that. Or from 5,100 to 7.8MM years. The book follows with extensive discussions of various estimates and their assumptions. His best estimate is 760 years.We are taken through a series of thought experiments. How much cash is in Brad Pitt’s wallet? The estimate is a 50% chance that he has more than $300 and a 20% chance of a five figure sum. In 2012, People magazine revealed the answer was $1100.Along the way Poundstone shares many incites. He notes that a phenomenon known as survivors bias causes index funds to load up on stocks that have done well in the past knowing they are unlikely to perform as well in the long run.He describes several incidents where luck prevented nuclear disaster. In 1958, an unarmed bomb was dropped over South Carolina due to a faulty red warning light. Its conventional explosives detonated on impact causing some damage. This was a close call in the Cold War era when dozens of armed B-52s were in the air at all times. In 1961, a B-52 carrying two hydrogen bombs developed a fuel leak and broke up over North Carolina. Two bombs fell to earth as the tail sheared off. One was found suspended from its parachute in a tree with the arm/safe fuse still in the safe position; the other’s parachute failed to open but landed in a swamp with sufficient cushioning to avoid detonation of its conventional explosives. It’s arm/safe switch was found on arm. A Russian response to a faulty radar warning was avoided when the officer in charge refused to believe the US would attack with a single missile.A chapter discusses the probably of finding life on other planets. That includes Fermi’s Question. If intelligent life exists on other planets, why have they not visited earth? Von Neumann’s response is that intelligent forms destroy themselves soon after reaching that level of sophistication.Another chapter considers the implications of artificial intelligence. Citing HAL, the computer that tried to kill humans to protect itself in 2001 Space Odessy, some feel AI will be the end of human domination of the earth.This book is for thinkers. None of it can be rated at critical to important decisions in your life, but it can get discussion going over a beer. For most this is a fun read, but perhaps some budding thinkers will be stimulated to advance the art. The book does include extensive references to recent discussion of classical thought problems. Notes, references, index.

Fascinating book on applications using the Bayesian theorem and relatively simple mathematics for prediction of a variety of things including the end of humanity. Definitely worthy of your time.

Grab your towel! Poundstone is an actual Ford Prefect taking the reader on a journey through time and space. As he explains the origins of “The Doomsday Calculation” in, what I felt, is a magnificent true version of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. The Doomsday Calculation is much, much more than its’ title would indicate. You will journey through the Universe, the minds of brilliant scientists and the emotions that obsessively compel humans to understand the “why”. The amount of research, breadth of topics covered makes this a deeply gratifying and enriching read. The poignant, gripping and entertaining human stories make the passions of their subjects contagious, energizing the reader.There are big picture insights revealed in these pages. Readers with a science background will find this immensely enjoyable. Readers with an interest in science but no background don’t be intimidated! The author explains everything clearly with thoughtful examples making the few formulas bitesized. Anyone that reads this book will be better for it.This is absolutely on my holiday gift list because it is a “keeper” book - one that stays in the library for future reference, future reading and available for future house guests to read.

Great insights on the human obsession with nihilism.